Us predictiom on Nigerian breackage.

Back in 2005, The US National Intelligence Council predicted the outright collapse of Nigeria by the year 2015. However on its part, Nigeria launched an "ambitious" initiative (i.e. Vision 2020) designed to take the country into the list of the best 20 economies in the world by the same year. There is of course an unmistakable contradiction between America's prediction and Nigeria's vision, and it is pretty clear that, reconciling these two predictions is absolutely impossible. Though, America's prediction may not necessarily come to pass, the factors it had relied upon to arrive at this prediction (unless properly addressed) warn of upheavals in Nigeria, to say the least. And though the country has survived several rounds of serious turmoil as a result of chronic socio-political and economic crises, her so- called Vision 2020 is of course unrealistic, because it does not seem to be based on any credible scientific indices. Incidentally, the value of predictions and expectations in the modern age is measured by the extent of its compliance with scientific reasoning and intelligent analyses away from mere rhetoric. Therefore the relevant issue is actually, the very prospect of Nigeria's corporate survival by the year 2020. Contrary to the general notion, Nigeria is not likely to break up along the North and South geographical boundaries, neither is she likely to split into any viable political entities for that matter. Because there is no regional, ethnic or religious block organized enough to function as a corporate entity immediately in the wake of the country's break up. Moreover, neither the proponents let alone the opponents of the break up have any substantive fallback plan likely to fill in the political vacuum in their respective regions, should the country collapse spontaneously, as America predicted. Furthermore, throughout the country, there are hardly any political leaders charismatic enough to inspire their respective people, for they have long ago lost their credibility, primarily for their failure to live up to the expectations of their masses over the decades. Therefore, what is most likely to occur in the wake of the country's collapse under the current circumstances is total anarchy instead, whereby warlords, criminal gang leaders, terrorist and drug barons will run the show. The South for instance and despite its huge economic potentials is not likely to come together and form a viable country, because they are deeply polarized along ethnic lines. The two major ethnic groups in the region are often at loggerheads, and there is hardly any harmony between them and the minority ethnic groups amidst them either. The minorities on the other hand mistrust each other and are vulnerable to their respective elite's manipulation for the control of the vast oil wealth in the area, which will be the target of many interest groups within the region and beyond. The North on the other hand is even worse in many fundamental respects. For instance, the hitherto perfect cohesion between its various minority ethnic groups on one hand and the dominant ethnic group on the other has eroded, thanks to the successive governments' poor leadership policies over the past few decades. Enmity under the pretext of religious differences in particular has crept in to redefine their relationship. Hence their prospect of coming together to form a viable country is ruled out. Likewise, the minorities' prospect of forming a country of their own does not seem feasible either, due to territorial constrains, multilateral mistrust among themselves also, as well as lack of instantly exploitable resources to sustain a country. As for the so-called core North in particular, the circumstances are worst, because after all, it is the poorest region in the country, and the most backward even in Nigerian standard. Granted they are relatively cohesive thanks to their shared religiously oriented cultural affiliation, they nonetheless don't have necessary economic resources substantial enough to sustain a viable country immediately. In view of the aforementioned, and while I still believe and call for positive reform in Nigeria, I also urge the stakeholders in all parts of the country to consider fallback initiatives for their respective regions, lest the country crumbles spontaneously. After all, the country operates a federal system under which all states are supposed to take care of themselves to a large extent, instead of looking up to the federal government for basic sustenance. The imperative of such fallback initiative is more pressing as per as the so-called core North is concerned, because it is the region to which all country's woes are rightly or wrongly attributed. As a matter of fact, the proponents of the break up are primarily motivated by their wish to get rid of it, because after all, some failed coup plotters had already attempted to remove it from the rest of Nigeria more than two decades ago. Sidq Isa wrote from United Arab Emirates